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2019 NBA Playoffs Bookie Strategies


With a few good strategic moves in place, bookies can kill it during the NBA playoffs

The NBA Playoffs first round is just about in the books. Pay per head agents that have already employed NBA Playoff bookie strategies and solid odds are likely to have seen a profit during Round 1 playoff games. Although favored teams dominated on the moneyline, they didn’t necessarily dominate against the spread.

That left bookies with plenty of ways to make money from against the spread odds on NBA Playoff games. The best way to explain the relevant PPH tools to use to increase profit from against the spread wagers is to concentrate on a single team, the most popular team in the NBA right now, the defending champion Golden State Warriors, and look at what happened in the first game and subsequent games of their Round 1 battle with the L.A. Clippers.

NBA Playoffs Bookie Strategies: Golden State Warriors Round 1 Case Study

Before getting into the first four games between the Warriors and Clippers, you might be wondering why Golden State? There are a few reasons Golden State’s the perfect team for an NBA Playoffs bookmaking strategy case study.

First, the Warriors have won the NBA Championship two years in a row. Everyone, even non-NBA fans, wonder if the Warriors can win a third title. It means interest on the Warriors every time they play should be high throughout the playoffs.

Second, Golden State was the most wagered upon team to cover the spread during the regular season. We know this is true because odds makers continued to make the Warriors major against the spread favorites in every single one of their home games from the beginning of the regular season to the end of the regular season. Odds makers would only have done that if NBA action on Golden State in their home playoff games had remained steady.

Finally, the Warriors remain the most wagered upon team in the NBA. Golden State has won 16 games, lost 24 contests, and tied 1 matchup against the spread in home games this season. Although they have more ATS losses than victories, their Game 5 odds against the Clippers went from -14 to -14.5. That means interest on backing Golden State remains high.

Now, let’s get to the four Round 1 games between Golden State and the Los Angeles Clippers that have already been played. By using Game 1 as the base for our case study, we can determine optimal NBA Playoff bookie strategies and odds.  

Game 1 – Golden State Warriors 121 vs Los Angeles Clippers 104

The Warriors went off -13.5 home favorites against the spread. After the first quarter, it appeared as if Golden State might run away with it. They had built a 9-point lead, 36-27. The Warriors increased their lead at the end of the second quarter. They were up 69-56 over the L.A. Clippers, meaning that Golden State had a .5 lead against the spread because the Warriors started the game down 13.5 points.

The second half proved to be much of the same with the Warriors increasing their lead to 5.5 points after outscoring the Clippers 29-23 in the third quarter. The Los Angeles Clippers beat the Warriors by 2 points, 25-23, in the fourth. The final score, 121-104, means Golden State covered by 3.5 points.

That’s not a massive amount of points to cover against the spread. Game 1 provided a clue to online bookie agents that the series, if not competitive against the moneyline, was going to be competitive against the spread. Check out what happened in Game 2, Game 3, and Game 4.

Game 2 – The Warriors entered the game a massive -13.5 favorite. Golden State was up at halftime 73-50. The Warriors, somehow, managed to blow their 23-point half-time lead in the greatest comeback victory in NBA history. The L.A. Clippers outscored Golden State 44-35 in the third quarter. They outscored the Warriors 41-23 in the fourth for a 135-131 win.

Game 3 – Golden State got back on the winning track in Game 3 with a huge 132-105 victory. The game took place at the Staple Center. The Warriors outscored the Clippers 41-24 in the first quarter. That set the tone for the rest of the game. LAC beat Golden State by 6 in the fourth quarter, 29-23, but the Warriors had built such a massive lead that they easily covered as the -9 road favorite.

Game 4 – The Warriors had dominated the Clippers so thoroughly in Game 3 that they were again road favorites, this time at -9.5. Although Golden State rushed out to a 10-point lead in the first quarter, the Clippers fought hard. At the end of the game, Los Angeles had only lost by 8 points, 113-108.

What happened after Game 1 makes sense because since the Golden State Warriors only won against the spread by 3.5 points, NBA Playoff bookies knew that the Warriors and Clippers would fight each other for against the spread wins. After four games in the round one series, Golden State had a 3-1 straight up lead, but the two teams were tied 2-2 against the spread.

We can glean overall NBA Playoffs bookie strategies just using Golden State Warriors-Los Angeles Clippers as a case study.

Strategy #1 – Use the layoff account

It makes no sense not to use the layoff account. The layoff account allows bookie agents to lay off money wagered on over bet teams. Use the layoff account no matter which team is over played.

Strategy #2 – Set max betting limits on moneyline wagers

Although few NBA bettors backed the Clippers in their Game 2 win, they offered unreal odds on the moneyline too win. Set max betting limits on all moneyline wagers no matter the against the spread odds.

Strategy #3 – If you change lines, change lines to punish favorites

Casual bettors disproportionately wager on favorites to cover the spread. If pay per head agents use the line mover to change spread lines, they should always punish favorites because most action should fall onto favorites.

The Golden State Warriors versus the L.A. Clippers is a great case study for per head agents to use to create NBA Playoffs bookie strategies.

If you’ve got any questions, or are ready to open your own online sportsbook, make sure to call a BossAction rep at 800-339-4108.