Taking futures bets can be very lucrative because your players are betting between more than two teams or two athletes. For the NFL MVP futures, they are competing against 29 quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. Because of that, your players’ potential winnings are much higher, and your potential to lose money also increases. How do you combat that? How do you keep your sportsbook safe, so you don’t run out of money and lose your business?
First, let’s take a look at some of the contenders and their current odds.
Top Five NFL MVP Favorites
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills. He hasn’t won the award yet, but this will only be his fifth season in the NFL. In the last two seasons, he’s posted consecutive +4,000 passing yards and has been increasing his rushing yards. And he has a new secret weapon in wide receiver/kick returner Isaiah McKenzie to keep those passing yards high. His odds are +700 to win.
Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’s won the award three times already. Each time was with the New England Patriot, but the last time was in 2017. He’s not getting any younger. Plus, he sort of retired, so how good will he compare to his younger self? Most sportsbooks are giving him +800 odds to win his fourth MVP. Most sportsbooks are giving him +800 odds.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs. He won MVP in his second year and has since guided the Chiefs to becoming Super Bowl champions in the 2019 season, six straight AFC West titles, and a second attempt at Super Bowl in 2020. Most sportsbooks are also giving him +800 odds.
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers. Green Bay did everything they could to keep Rodgers for another year. His massive contract meant they had to trade their top receiver to the Las Vegas Raiders. If Rodgers can still post the great numbers he did last year without his top receiver, his odds of winning MVP for the third time in a row could improve. He’s averaging +1000 odds.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers. Justin topped 5,000 passing yards last year, second only to Tom Brady. He hopes to improve his rushing game this season. At 6 ft, 6 in, and 237 lbs, he should be able to rush the ball with little effort. His odds are between +900 and +1000.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens. He won MVP in 2019, only his second season in the NFL. That was his best season so far, but it shows he has the potential to repeat. His odds are at +2000 according to the major sportsbooks, so expectations are low for him. But if he does come on top again, it could be a significant loss to bookies. Keep an eye on him.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolpins. He’s been inconsistent so far in his 21 starts over his first two seasons, but now he has newly acquired wide receiver Tyreek Hill as a target. Hill was traded from Kansas City and said Tua is a more accurate thrower than Mahomes. That might not be enough for Tua to get the MVP award, but with odds ranging from +5000 to +7500, make sure you’re covered if any of your players bet on him.
How to Manage Your Futures Bets
Let’s say, for example, that you only have one person betting on the NFL MVP futures. Frank bet on Green Bay’s quarterback Aaron Rodgers to win at +1000. That means if he bets $100 with you, and Aaron wins MVP (again), then Frank wins $1,000. That means you, as the bookie, lost $1,000. You want to avoid that risk.
There are a few things sports bookies need to consider and some tools they can use.
Bookies increase their risk if they only have a few players betting on the MVP futures. Using the example above, if George also bets $100 on Buffalo Bills Josh Allen and Tom bets $100 on Tampa Bay Tom Brady, no matter who wins MVP, you get to keep at least $200, but you have to pay out at least $700 if one of those guys win. If LA Chargers Justin Herbert wins MVP, you take home $300.
If you’ve got money spread evenly amongst ten potential MVPs, and one of them wins, you have another nine that didn’t win. That’s nine athletes that you get to pay the winner with. It’s a much better scenario.
So, promote the futures bets and get lots of your players betting on them. The more money that is bet on a larger group of MVP candidates, the more it reduces your risk and increases your potential to make lots of money. Either get your players to bet on more than one NFL athlete or bring more players to your bookie business. The great thing about futures bets is that you get to pocket all the money if no one picks the eventual winner.
Bookie Software Tools
Your bookie betting software should have the ability to limit the bets your players can make. Use that to keep from having too much money bet on one player and risking your bankroll. And if too much money is bet on one or two MVP candidates, use your layoff account to mitigate that risk.
If, for example, someone bets on Carolina Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield, at odds somewhere around +8000, you might want to use your layoff account, but that’s up to you. The odds are pretty small that he wins, but laying off that bet will keep you from worrying about it. And also, add alerts, so you know whenever your players are betting. You don’t want to get caught off guard.
BossAction has all those features and more in our proprietary pay per head software. Join now and receive two weeks free so you can get all your players betting on this year’s NFL MVP. Boss Agents see an average of 23% gains when they transfer over. And now, with ClubPoker, you can make even more cash as your players get in some poker between NFL games.
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